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Plymouth Argyle W vs Cheltenham Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Plymouth Argyle W
Plymouth Argyle W
FT
4 – 2
Cheltenham Town W
Cheltenham Town W
11/13/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundElburton Villa FC Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Plymouth Argyle W46%
×Draw19%
Cheltenham Town W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth Argyle W
2.63
Cheltenham Town W
2.29

Plymouth Argyle W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Plymouth Argyle W
4.27
Cheltenham Town W
2.50

allows per match

Plymouth Argyle W
2.09
Cheltenham Town W
1.00

finishing

Plymouth Argyle W+0.00on par
Cheltenham Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth Argyle W ↓

Cheltenham Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Plymouth Argyle W or draw
65%
Plymouth Argyle W or Cheltenham Town W
81%
Draw or Cheltenham Town W
54%

Winning margin

Plymouth Argyle W wins by 2+
28%
Cheltenham Town W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Plymouth Argyle W 1+ goals
93%
Plymouth Argyle W 2+ goals
73%
Plymouth Argyle W 3+ goals
48%
Cheltenham Town W 1+ goals
90%
Cheltenham Town W 2+ goals
66%
Cheltenham Town W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Plymouth Argyle W (draw refunded)
57%
Cheltenham Town W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth Argyle W at home — creates 4.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Cheltenham Town W away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth Argyle W attack 4.27 + Cheltenham Town W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Cheltenham Town W attack 2.50 + Plymouth Argyle W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Plymouth Argyle W scores more
46%
level
19%
Cheltenham Town W scores more
35%

Plymouth Argyle W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Plymouth Argyle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plymouth Argyle W vs Cheltenham Town W

Plymouth Argyle W beat Cheltenham Town W 4-2 in FA Women's Cup on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Elburton Villa FC Ground in Elburton, Plymouth.