Plymouth Argyle W 0–6 Charlton Athletic W

Plymouth Argyle W

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton Athletic W

1/30/2022

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundHome Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Plymouth Argyle W45%

×Draw19%

Charlton Athletic W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plymouth Argyle WExpected goals in this matchCharlton Athletic W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

2.25

Plymouth Argyle W

2.53

Charlton Athletic W

2.25

Plymouth Argyle W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

4.27

creates per match

2.40

2.09

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Plymouth Argyle W

4.27

Charlton Athletic W

2.40

allows per match

Plymouth Argyle W

2.09

Charlton Athletic W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth Argyle W+0.00on par

Charlton Athletic W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth Argyle W ↓

Charlton Athletic W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Plymouth Argyle W or draw

64%

Plymouth Argyle W or Charlton Athletic W

81%

Draw or Charlton Athletic W

55%

Winning margin

Plymouth Argyle W wins by 2+

27%

Charlton Athletic W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Plymouth Argyle W 1+ goals

92%

Plymouth Argyle W 2+ goals

71%

Plymouth Argyle W 3+ goals

46%

Charlton Athletic W 1+ goals

89%

Charlton Athletic W 2+ goals

65%

Charlton Athletic W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Plymouth Argyle W (draw refunded)

56%

Charlton Athletic W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Plymouth Argyle W at home — creates 4.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Charlton Athletic W away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth Argyle W attack 4.27 + Charlton Athletic W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.53

Charlton Athletic W attack 2.40 + Plymouth Argyle W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Plymouth Argyle W scores more

45%

level

19%

Charlton Athletic W scores more

36%

Plymouth Argyle W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plymouth Argyle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff