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Plus Ultra vs Montecasillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Montecasillas
Montecasillas
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Plus Ultra51%
×Draw23%
Montecasillas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plus Ultra
1.85
Montecasillas
1.26

Plus Ultra creates 47% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 17 away

creates per match

Plus Ultra
0.89
Montecasillas
0.71

allows per match

Plus Ultra
1.81
Montecasillas
2.82

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par
Montecasillas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

Montecasillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw
74%
Plus Ultra or Montecasillas
77%
Draw or Montecasillas
49%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+
29%
Montecasillas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals
84%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
55%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
28%
Montecasillas 1+ goals
72%
Montecasillas 2+ goals
36%
Montecasillas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
66%
Montecasillas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

Montecasillas away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + Montecasillas defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Montecasillas attack 0.71 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Plus Ultra scores more
51%
level
23%
Montecasillas scores more
26%

Plus Ultra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Plus Ultra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plus Ultra 2 – 1 Montecasillas

Plus Ultra beat Montecasillas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.