Plus Ultra 0–2 Mazarrón FC: Result & Stats

Plus Ultra

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mazarrón FC

1/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Plus Ultra28%

×Draw26%

Mazarrón FC46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plus UltraExpected goals in this matchMazarrón FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.51

Plus Ultra

1.11

Mazarrón FC

1.51

Mazarrón FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 63 away

0.89

creates per match

1.21

1.81

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Plus Ultra

0.89

Mazarrón FC

1.21

allows per match

Plus Ultra

1.81

Mazarrón FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

Mazarrón FC →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw

54%

Plus Ultra or Mazarrón FC

74%

Draw or Mazarrón FC

72%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

11%

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

67%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

30%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

10%

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

78%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

44%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

38%

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Plus Ultra scores more

28%

level

26%

Mazarrón FC scores more

46%

Mazarrón FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff