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Plus Ultra vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Plus Ultra33%
×Draw27%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plus Ultra
1.17
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.33

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 78 away

creates per match

Plus Ultra
0.89
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.85

allows per match

Plus Ultra
1.81
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.45

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par
CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw
60%
Plus Ultra or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
73%
Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
67%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+
13%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals
69%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
33%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
11%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
74%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
38%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
45%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Plus Ultra scores more
33%
level
27%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
40%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plus Ultra vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Plus Ultra beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.