CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2–0 Plus Ultra: Result & Stats

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Plus Ultra

Peque 80' (pen)

Alvaro Esquinas 58'

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia58%

×Draw23%

Plus Ultra19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchPlus Ultra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.92

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.79

Plus Ultra

0.92

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 95% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 63 away

1.03

creates per match

0.79

1.04

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

Plus Ultra

0.79

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

Plus Ultra

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

Plus Ultra →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

81%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or Plus Ultra

77%

Draw or Plus Ultra

42%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

33%

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

83%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

53%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

26%

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

60%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

23%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

75%

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.79

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

58%

level

23%

Plus Ultra scores more

19%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

K. Garcés← B. Mashingaidze

58'

Julio Jiménez← Daniel Manzanares

58'

Alvaro Esquinas

61'

Hamza Agnaou← Adriano

65'

José Mariano← Alejandro Pérez

65'

Peque← N. Kwaku

75'

Mario Santiago← Alvaro Esquinas

75'

Antonio Ortiz← D. Ramírez

80'

PequePenalty

83'

Pedro Cárceles← J. Díaz

CAP

Plus

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⚽

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Esquinas

Manager: Juan López

65'▲José Mariano←▼Alejandro Pérez

65'▲Peque←▼N. Kwaku

75'▲Mario Santiago←▼Alvaro Esquinas

75'▲Antonio Ortiz←▼D. Ramírez

83'▲Pedro Cárceles←▼J. Díaz

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

MarianoPequeSantiagoOrtizCárceles

Manager: José Ruiz

58'▲K. Garcés←▼B. Mashingaidze

58'▲Julio Jiménez←▼Daniel Manzanares

61'▲Hamza Agnaou←▼Adriano

Plus Ultra substitutes

GarcésJiménezAgnaou