Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Plus Ultra vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Plus Ultra36%
×Draw27%
Balsicas Atlético38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plus Ultra
1.27
Balsicas Atlético
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 51 away

creates per match

Plus Ultra
0.89
Balsicas Atlético
0.82

allows per match

Plus Ultra
1.81
Balsicas Atlético
1.65

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par
Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

Balsicas Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw
62%
Plus Ultra or Balsicas Atlético
73%
Draw or Balsicas Atlético
64%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+
16%
Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals
72%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
36%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
14%
Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
73%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
38%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
49%
Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Plus Ultra scores more
36%
level
27%
Balsicas Atlético scores more
38%

Balsicas Atlético at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Balsicas Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Plus Ultra 1–2 Balsicas Atlético

Balsicas Atlético beat Plus Ultra 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.