Plus Ultra 1–0 Atlético Pulpileño: Result & Stats

Plus Ultra

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Pulpileño

11/11/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Plus Ultra22%

×Draw26%

Atlético Pulpileño51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plus UltraExpected goals in this matchAtlético Pulpileño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.48

Plus Ultra

0.87

Atlético Pulpileño

1.48

Atlético Pulpileño creates 70% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 93 away

0.89

creates per match

1.16

1.81

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Plus Ultra

0.89

Atlético Pulpileño

1.16

allows per match

Plus Ultra

1.81

Atlético Pulpileño

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw

49%

Plus Ultra or Atlético Pulpileño

74%

Draw or Atlético Pulpileño

78%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

58%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

22%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

30%

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.87

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Plus Ultra scores more

22%

level

26%

Atlético Pulpileño scores more

51%

Atlético Pulpileño at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff