Plaza Colonia 2–2 Miramar: Result & Stats

Plaza Colonia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Miramar

J. Menéndez 67'

J. Mascia 45' (pen)

J. Ortíz 65', 7'

4/7/2018

Segunda División · Round 6Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Plaza Colonia39%

×Draw29%

Miramar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plaza ColoniaExpected goals in this matchMiramar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.03

Plaza Colonia

1.18

Miramar

1.03

Plaza Colonia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 48 away

1.23

creates per match

1.23

0.84

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Plaza Colonia

1.23

Miramar

1.23

allows per match

Plaza Colonia

0.84

Miramar

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plaza Colonia+0.00on par

Miramar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Colonia ↓

Miramar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Plaza Colonia or draw

68%

Plaza Colonia or Miramar

71%

Draw or Miramar

61%

Winning margin

Plaza Colonia wins by 2+

17%

Miramar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Plaza Colonia 1+ goals

69%

Plaza Colonia 2+ goals

33%

Plaza Colonia 3+ goals

12%

Miramar 1+ goals

64%

Miramar 2+ goals

28%

Miramar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Plaza Colonia (draw refunded)

55%

Miramar (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Colonia at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.84 · 43 matches

Miramar away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Colonia attack 1.23 + Miramar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Miramar attack 1.23 + Plaza Colonia defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Plaza Colonia scores more

39%

level

29%

Miramar scores more

32%

Plaza Colonia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plaza Colonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Ortíz

30'

R. Dorrego← J. Sequeyra

45'

J. MasciaPenalty

60'

J. Menéndez← E. Umeres

62'

P. Gárate← G. Gabriel

65'

J. Ortíz

67'

S. Gáspari← J. Irazoqui

67'

J. Menéndez

71'

J. Fernández← J. Mascia

82'

R. Pérez← J. Ríos

Plaza

Miramar

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mascia

▼

Umeres

Suhr

Manager: M. Szlafmyc

30'▲R. Dorrego←▼J. Sequeyra

60'▲J. Menéndez←▼E. Umeres

71'▲J. Fernández←▼J. Mascia

Plaza Colonia substitutes

DorregoMenéndezFernándezAschieriIrsanskasCabreraBrunelli

Manager: J. Denis

62'▲P. Gárate←▼G. Gabriel

67'▲S. Gáspari←▼J. Irazoqui

82'▲R. Pérez←▼J. Ríos

Miramar substitutes

GárateGáspariPérezOtamendiMartínezLemosPereira

Segunda División: Plaza Colonia 2–2 Miramar

Plaza Colonia and Miramar drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 7, 2018.

Goals: J. Ortíz (7', 65'), J. Mascia (45' pen), J. Menéndez (67').

The match was played at Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento).

Plaza Colonia vs Miramar — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Plaza Colonia 2–2 Miramar