Plaza Amador 3–0 Santa Gema FC: Result & Stats

Plaza Amador

FT

3 – 0

Santa Gema FC

2/2/2019

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 1Nuevo Estadio Maracaná de Panamá (Ciudad de Panamá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Plaza Amador59%

×Draw23%

Santa Gema FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plaza AmadorExpected goals in this matchSanta Gema FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.80

Plaza Amador

1.73

Santa Gema FC

0.80

Plaza Amador creates 116% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

0.67

0.92

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Plaza Amador

1.35

Santa Gema FC

0.67

allows per match

Plaza Amador

0.92

Santa Gema FC

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plaza Amador+0.00on par

Santa Gema FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Amador ↓

Santa Gema FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Plaza Amador or draw

83%

Plaza Amador or Santa Gema FC

77%

Draw or Santa Gema FC

41%

Winning margin

Plaza Amador wins by 2+

34%

Santa Gema FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Plaza Amador 1+ goals

82%

Plaza Amador 2+ goals

52%

Plaza Amador 3+ goals

25%

Santa Gema FC 1+ goals

55%

Santa Gema FC 2+ goals

19%

Santa Gema FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)

78%

Santa Gema FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Amador at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 136 matches

Santa Gema FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Amador attack 1.35 + Santa Gema FC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Santa Gema FC attack 0.67 + Plaza Amador defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plaza Amador scores more

59%

level

23%

Santa Gema FC scores more

17%

Plaza Amador at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff