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Plaza Amador vs Atlético Chiriquí — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Plaza Amador
Plaza Amador
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Chiriquí
Atlético Chiriquí
10/3/2021Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 9Nuevo Estadio Maracaná de Panamá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Plaza Amador58%
×Draw24%
Atlético Chiriquí18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plaza Amador
1.66
Atlético Chiriquí
0.79

Plaza Amador creates 110% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 66 away

creates per match

Plaza Amador
1.35
Atlético Chiriquí
0.65

allows per match

Plaza Amador
0.92
Atlético Chiriquí
1.97

finishing

Plaza Amador+0.00on par
Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plaza Amador ↓

Atlético Chiriquí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Plaza Amador or draw
82%
Plaza Amador or Atlético Chiriquí
76%
Draw or Atlético Chiriquí
42%

Winning margin

Plaza Amador wins by 2+
32%
Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Plaza Amador 1+ goals
81%
Plaza Amador 2+ goals
49%
Plaza Amador 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals
55%
Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Plaza Amador (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plaza Amador at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 136 matches

Atlético Chiriquí away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.97 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plaza Amador attack 1.35 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.65 + Plaza Amador defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Plaza Amador scores more
58%
level
24%
Atlético Chiriquí scores more
18%

Plaza Amador at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Plaza Amador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Plaza Amador 2–0 Atlético Chiriquí

Plaza Amador beat Atlético Chiriquí 2-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Maracaná de Panamá in Ciudad de Panamá.