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Pļaviņas / DM vs Cēsis — Cup 2020

Pļaviņas / DM
Pļaviņas / DM
FT
4 – 2
Cēsis
Cēsis
7/25/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStadions Gostiņi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pļaviņas / DM59%
×Draw18%
Cēsis23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pļaviņas / DM
2.87
Cēsis
1.80

Pļaviņas / DM creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pļaviņas / DM
1.56
Cēsis
0.83

allows per match

Pļaviņas / DM
2.78
Cēsis
4.17

finishing

Pļaviņas / DM+0.00on par
Cēsis+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pļaviņas / DM ↓

Cēsis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Pļaviņas / DM or draw
77%
Pļaviņas / DM or Cēsis
82%
Draw or Cēsis
41%

Winning margin

Pļaviņas / DM wins by 2+
40%
Cēsis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pļaviņas / DM 1+ goals
94%
Pļaviņas / DM 2+ goals
77%
Pļaviņas / DM 3+ goals
53%
Cēsis 1+ goals
83%
Cēsis 2+ goals
54%
Cēsis 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Pļaviņas / DM (draw refunded)
72%
Cēsis (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pļaviņas / DM at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

Cēsis away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pļaviņas / DM attack 1.56 + Cēsis defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.87

Cēsis attack 0.83 + Pļaviņas / DM defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pļaviņas / DM scores more
59%
level
18%
Cēsis scores more
23%

Pļaviņas / DM at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pļaviņas / DM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pļaviņas / DM vs Cēsis

Pļaviņas / DM beat Cēsis 4-2 in Cup on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadions Gostiņi in Pļaviņas.