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Plauen vs Westerhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Plauen
Plauen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Westerhausen
Westerhausen
6/4/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 33Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Plauen73%
×Draw16%
Westerhausen11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
2.46
Westerhausen
0.82

Plauen creates 200% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Plauen
2.32
Westerhausen
0.76

allows per match

Plauen
0.88
Westerhausen
2.59

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
Westerhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Westerhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
89%
Plauen or Westerhausen
84%
Draw or Westerhausen
27%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
50%
Westerhausen wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
91%
Plauen 2+ goals
70%
Plauen 3+ goals
44%
Westerhausen 1+ goals
56%
Westerhausen 2+ goals
20%
Westerhausen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
87%
Westerhausen (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Westerhausen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Westerhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.46

Westerhausen attack 0.76 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Plauen scores more
73%
level
16%
Westerhausen scores more
11%

Plauen at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Plauen 4–0 Westerhausen

Plauen beat Westerhausen 4-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sternquell-Arena in Plauen.