Plauen 3–0 Martinroda: Result & Stats

Plauen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Martinroda

4/2/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 21Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Plauen69%

×Draw18%

Martinroda13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlauenExpected goals in this matchMartinroda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.94

Plauen

2.37

Martinroda

0.94

Plauen creates 152% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

2.32

creates per match

1.00

0.88

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Plauen

2.32

Martinroda

1.00

allows per match

Plauen

0.88

Martinroda

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par

Martinroda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Martinroda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Plauen or draw

87%

Plauen or Martinroda

82%

Draw or Martinroda

31%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+

46%

Martinroda wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals

91%

Plauen 2+ goals

68%

Plauen 3+ goals

42%

Martinroda 1+ goals

61%

Martinroda 2+ goals

24%

Martinroda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)

84%

Martinroda (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Martinroda away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Martinroda defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.37

Martinroda attack 1.00 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Plauen scores more

69%

level

18%

Martinroda scores more

13%

Plauen at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff