Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Plauen vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Plauen
Plauen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
4/10/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 17Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Plauen65%
×Draw20%
Ludwigsfelde15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
2.14
Ludwigsfelde
0.92

Plauen creates 133% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 50 away

creates per match

Plauen
2.32
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

Plauen
0.88
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
85%
Plauen or Ludwigsfelde
80%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
35%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
41%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
88%
Plauen 2+ goals
63%
Plauen 3+ goals
36%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
60%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
23%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
81%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.14

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Plauen scores more
65%
level
20%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
15%

Plauen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Plauen 0–1 Ludwigsfelde

Ludwigsfelde beat Plauen 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sternquell-Arena in Plauen.