Plauen 1–1 Einheit Rudolstadt: Result & Stats

Plauen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Einheit Rudolstadt

9/27/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 7Vogtlandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Plauen62%

×Draw20%

Einheit Rudolstadt19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlauenExpected goals in this matchEinheit Rudolstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.14

Plauen

2.22

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.14

Plauen creates 95% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 82 away

2.32

creates per match

1.40

0.88

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Plauen

2.32

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.40

allows per match

Plauen

0.88

Einheit Rudolstadt

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Plauen or draw

81%

Plauen or Einheit Rudolstadt

80%

Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt

38%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+

39%

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals

89%

Plauen 2+ goals

65%

Plauen 3+ goals

38%

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals

68%

Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals

32%

Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)

77%

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.22

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Plauen scores more

62%

level

20%

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more

19%

Plauen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff