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Plauen vs Eilenburg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Plauen
Plauen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eilenburg
Eilenburg
L. Will 64'
N. Baumann 26'
5/13/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 31Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Plauen46%
×Draw24%
Eilenburg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
1.73
Eilenburg
1.35

Plauen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 22 away

creates per match

Plauen
2.32
Eilenburg
1.82

allows per match

Plauen
0.88
Eilenburg
1.14

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
Eilenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Eilenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
70%
Plauen or Eilenburg
76%
Draw or Eilenburg
54%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
25%
Eilenburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
82%
Plauen 2+ goals
52%
Plauen 3+ goals
25%
Eilenburg 1+ goals
74%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
39%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
61%
Eilenburg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Eilenburg away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Eilenburg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Eilenburg attack 1.82 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Plauen scores more
46%
level
24%
Eilenburg scores more
30%

Plauen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
N. Baumann
64'
L. Will
80'
P. Aguilar
80'
P. Aguilar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plauen vs Eilenburg

Plauen and Eilenburg drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on May 13, 2023.

Goals: N. Baumann (26'), L. Will (64').

The match was played at Sternquell-Arena in Plauen.