Plauen 0–1 Carl Zeiss Jena II: Result & Stats

Plauen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Carl Zeiss Jena II

2/12/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 15Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Plauen55%

×Draw21%

Carl Zeiss Jena II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlauenExpected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.32

Plauen

2.09

Carl Zeiss Jena II

1.32

Plauen creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 22 away

2.32

creates per match

1.77

0.88

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Plauen

2.32

Carl Zeiss Jena II

1.77

allows per match

Plauen

0.88

Carl Zeiss Jena II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Plauen or draw

76%

Plauen or Carl Zeiss Jena II

79%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena II

45%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+

33%

Carl Zeiss Jena II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals

88%

Plauen 2+ goals

62%

Plauen 3+ goals

34%

Carl Zeiss Jena II 1+ goals

73%

Carl Zeiss Jena II 2+ goals

38%

Carl Zeiss Jena II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)

70%

Carl Zeiss Jena II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Carl Zeiss Jena II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.09

Carl Zeiss Jena II attack 1.77 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Plauen scores more

55%

level

21%

Carl Zeiss Jena II scores more

24%

Plauen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff