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Plauen vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Plauen
Plauen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
12/6/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 15Vogtlandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Plauen54%
×Draw22%
Bischofswerdaer FV24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
1.95
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.23

Plauen creates 59% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 77 away

creates per match

Plauen
2.32
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.57

allows per match

Plauen
0.88
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
76%
Plauen or Bischofswerdaer FV
78%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
46%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
31%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
86%
Plauen 2+ goals
58%
Plauen 3+ goals
31%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
71%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
35%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
69%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.95

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Plauen scores more
54%
level
22%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
24%

Plauen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Plauen 1–0 Bischofswerdaer FV

Plauen beat Bischofswerdaer FV 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Vogtlandstadion in Plauen.