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Plauen vs Arnstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Plauen
Plauen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arnstadt
Arnstadt
10/21/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 10Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Plauen70%
×Draw18%
Arnstadt13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
2.38
Arnstadt
0.91

Plauen creates 162% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 31 away

creates per match

Plauen
2.32
Arnstadt
0.94

allows per match

Plauen
0.88
Arnstadt
2.45

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
Arnstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

Arnstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
87%
Plauen or Arnstadt
82%
Draw or Arnstadt
30%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
47%
Arnstadt wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
91%
Plauen 2+ goals
68%
Plauen 3+ goals
42%
Arnstadt 1+ goals
60%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
23%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
85%
Arnstadt (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Arnstadt away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + Arnstadt defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.38

Arnstadt attack 0.94 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Plauen scores more
70%
level
18%
Arnstadt scores more
13%

Plauen at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Plauen 3–0 Arnstadt

Plauen beat Arnstadt 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sternquell-Arena in Plauen.