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Plauen vs 1. FC Merseburg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Plauen
Plauen
CANC
13:00
1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
3/14/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23Sternquell-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Plauen81%
×Draw13%
1. FC Merseburg6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plauen
2.79
1. FC Merseburg
0.65

Plauen creates 329% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 12 away

creates per match

Plauen
2.32
1. FC Merseburg
0.42

allows per match

Plauen
0.88
1. FC Merseburg
3.25

finishing

Plauen+0.00on par
1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plauen ↓

1. FC Merseburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Plauen or draw
94%
Plauen or 1. FC Merseburg
87%
Draw or 1. FC Merseburg
19%

Winning margin

Plauen wins by 2+
61%
1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Plauen 1+ goals
94%
Plauen 2+ goals
76%
Plauen 3+ goals
52%
1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
48%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
14%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Plauen (draw refunded)
93%
1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plauen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

1. FC Merseburg away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plauen attack 2.32 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.79

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.42 + Plauen defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Plauen scores more
81%
level
13%
1. FC Merseburg scores more
6%

Plauen at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Plauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plauen host 1. FC Merseburg

March 14, 2021: Plauen take on 1. FC Merseburg in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plauen host 1. FC Merseburg at Sternquell-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.