Platges Calvià 5–1 Sóller: Result & Stats

Platges Calvià

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sóller

3/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 27Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Platges Calvià59%

×Draw23%

Sóller18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platges CalviàExpected goals in this matchSóller

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.85

Platges Calvià

1.78

Sóller

0.85

Platges Calvià creates 109% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 81 away

1.52

creates per match

0.88

0.83

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Platges Calvià

1.52

Sóller

0.88

allows per match

Platges Calvià

0.83

Sóller

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Sóller+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Sóller →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw

82%

Platges Calvià or Sóller

77%

Draw or Sóller

41%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

34%

Sóller wins by 2+

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

83%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

53%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

26%

Sóller 1+ goals

57%

Sóller 2+ goals

21%

Sóller 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

77%

Sóller (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Sóller away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.05 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Sóller defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sóller attack 0.88 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Platges Calvià scores more

59%

level

23%

Sóller scores more

18%

Platges Calvià at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff