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Platges Calvià vs Porreres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Porreres
Porreres
10/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Platges Calvià39%
×Draw27%
Porreres34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
1.32
Porreres
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 17 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
Porreres
1.59

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
Porreres
1.12

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
Porreres+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Porreres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
66%
Platges Calvià or Porreres
73%
Draw or Porreres
61%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
18%
Porreres wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
73%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
38%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
15%
Porreres 1+ goals
70%
Porreres 2+ goals
34%
Porreres 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
54%
Porreres (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Porreres away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Porreres defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.32

Porreres attack 1.59 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
39%
level
27%
Porreres scores more
34%

Platges Calvià at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Platges Calvià 0–1 Porreres

Porreres beat Platges Calvià 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf in Mallorca.