Platges Calvià 2–0 PE Sant Jordi: Result & Stats

Platges Calvià

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

PE Sant Jordi

1/19/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 18Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Platges Calvià50%

×Draw26%

PE Sant Jordi25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platges CalviàExpected goals in this matchPE Sant Jordi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.00

Platges Calvià

1.54

PE Sant Jordi

1.00

Platges Calvià creates 54% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 65 away

1.52

creates per match

1.18

0.83

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Platges Calvià

1.52

PE Sant Jordi

1.18

allows per match

Platges Calvià

0.83

PE Sant Jordi

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

PE Sant Jordi →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw

75%

Platges Calvià or PE Sant Jordi

74%

Draw or PE Sant Jordi

50%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

26%

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

79%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

45%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

20%

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

63%

PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

26%

PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

67%

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Platges Calvià scores more

50%

level

26%

PE Sant Jordi scores more

25%

Platges Calvià at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs PE Sant Jordi

Platges Calvià beat PE Sant Jordi 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf in Magaluf.

Platges Calvià vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs PE Sant Jordi