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Platges Calvià vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Llosetense
Llosetense
4/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 29Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Platges Calvià45%
×Draw26%
Llosetense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
1.43
Llosetense
1.07

Platges Calvià creates 34% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 116 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
72%
Platges Calvià or Llosetense
74%
Draw or Llosetense
55%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
22%
Llosetense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
76%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
42%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
17%
Llosetense 1+ goals
66%
Llosetense 2+ goals
29%
Llosetense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
62%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
45%
level
26%
Llosetense scores more
28%

Platges Calvià at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs Llosetense

Platges Calvià beat Llosetense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf in Magaluf.