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Platges Calvià vs Inter Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Platges Calvià69%
×Draw20%
Inter Manacor12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
2.05
Inter Manacor
0.71

Platges Calvià creates 189% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 32 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
Inter Manacor
0.59

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
Inter Manacor
2.59

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

Inter Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
88%
Platges Calvià or Inter Manacor
80%
Draw or Inter Manacor
31%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
43%
Inter Manacor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
87%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
61%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
33%
Inter Manacor 1+ goals
51%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
16%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
85%
Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

Inter Manacor away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + Inter Manacor defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.05

Inter Manacor attack 0.59 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
69%
level
20%
Inter Manacor scores more
12%

Platges Calvià at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Platges Calvià 3 – 2 Inter Manacor

Platges Calvià beat Inter Manacor 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magaluf in Magaluf.