Platense 2–1 Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Fe

M. Mendia 63'

T. Nasif 57'

F. Fagundez 90'

4/29/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Platense41%

×Draw28%

Santa Fe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.09

Platense

1.29

Santa Fe

1.09

Platense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.33

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Platense

1.00

Santa Fe

0.86

allows per match

Platense

1.33

Santa Fe

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense+0.00on par

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Platense or draw

69%

Platense or Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Santa Fe

59%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

18%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

72%

Platense 2+ goals

37%

Platense 3+ goals

14%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

66%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

30%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

57%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.00 + Santa Fe defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Santa Fe attack 0.86 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Platense scores more

41%

level

28%

Santa Fe scores more

31%

Platense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Nasif

Platense · F

8.3

Match Events

13'

Víctor Cuesta

20'

Ivan GómezRed card cancelled

21'

Ivan Gómez

29'

Luis Palacios

46'

M. Barrios← I. Gomez

46'

Juan Quintero← V. Moreno

57'

T. Nasif↳ G. Mainero

60'

Kilian Toscano

63'

M. Mendia↳ G. Mainero

70'

J. Obrian← L. Palacios

74'

J. Torres← K. D. Toscano Bassa

75'

N. Bustos← H. Rodallega

76'

G. Lencina← T. Nasif

82'

S. Dalmasso← K. Retamar

87'

B. Merlini← G. Mainero

88'

Daniel Torres

88'

C. Ingenthron← F. Zapiola

89'

A. Zapata← D. Torres

90'

F. Fagundez↳ E. Olivera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseSanta

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots6

0.64Expected Goals (xG)0.38

3Corners1

13Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots6

7On Target1

4Off Target4

2Blocked1

9Inside Box1

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

321Total Passes339

240Accurate Passes252

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

-1.09Goals Prevented-1.09

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Platense vs Santa Fe

Platense beat Santa Fe 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 29, 2026.

Goals: T. Nasif (57'), M. Mendia (63'), F. Fagundez (90').

Santa Fe controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez in Florida.

Platense vs Santa Fe — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Platense vs Santa Fe