Platense 2–2 San Martin S.J.: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

San Martin S.J.

M. Rodriguez 90'

R. Martinez 12'

T. Fernandez 67'

D. Gonzalez 3'

9/26/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Platense45%

×Draw32%

San Martin S.J.23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.67

Platense

1.08

San Martin S.J.

0.67

Platense creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

1.05

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Platense

1.05

San Martin S.J.

0.67

allows per match

Platense

0.67

San Martin S.J.

1.12

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Platense-0.34scores less

San Martin S.J.-0.17scores less

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Platense or draw

77%

Platense or San Martin S.J.

68%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

55%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

19%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

66%

Platense 2+ goals

29%

Platense 3+ goals

10%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

49%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

15%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

67%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.67 · 17 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.12 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.05 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

San Martin S.J. attack 0.67 + Platense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Platense scores more

45%

level

32%

San Martin S.J. scores more

23%

Platense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

R. Martinez

Platense · F

8.2

Match Events

3'

D. Gonzalez↳ A. Portillo

12'

R. Martinez↳ G. Mainero

21'

Leonel Picco

23'

Ignacio Vazquez

23'

Diego González

60'

S. Jaurena← D. Gonzalez

60'

T. Fernandez← S. Salle

63'

Rodrigo Caseres

64'

R. Lozano← L. Picco

67'

T. Fernandez↳ T. Lecanda

70'

Ignacio Maestro PuchGoal confirmed

75'

Óscar Salomón

79'

Jonathan Menéndez

80'

M. Rodriguez← F. Baldassarra

81'

L. Recalde← S. Gonzalez

81'

M. Orihuela← J. Menendez

88'

F. Anselmo← I. Maestro

90'

M. Rodriguez↳ R. Martinez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseSan

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots6

1.09Expected Goals (xG)0.45

3Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots6

3On Target2

10Off Target3

1Blocked1

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

327Total Passes203

234Accurate Passes114

72%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-0.66Goals Prevented-0.66

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3