Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Platense vs Once Municipal — Primera Division 2019

Platense
Platense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Once Municipal
Once Municipal
4/9/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 17Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Platense38%
×Draw27%
Once Municipal35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.25
Once Municipal
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 122 away

creates per match

Platense
1.04
Once Municipal
1.02

allows per match

Platense
1.38
Once Municipal
1.47

finishing

Platense+0.00on par
Once Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Once Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Platense or draw
65%
Platense or Once Municipal
73%
Draw or Once Municipal
62%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
16%
Once Municipal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
71%
Platense 2+ goals
36%
Platense 3+ goals
13%
Once Municipal 1+ goals
70%
Once Municipal 2+ goals
34%
Once Municipal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
52%
Once Municipal (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Once Municipal away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.04 + Once Municipal defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Once Municipal attack 1.02 + Platense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Platense scores more
38%
level
27%
Once Municipal scores more
35%

Platense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense vs Once Municipal

Platense beat Once Municipal 2-0 in Primera Division on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Toledo Valle in Zacatecoluca.