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Platense vs Municipal Limeño — Primera Division 2019

Platense
Platense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Municipal Limeño
Municipal Limeño
1/21/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Platense35%
×Draw28%
Municipal Limeño37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.18
Municipal Limeño
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 130 away

creates per match

Platense
1.04
Municipal Limeño
1.07

allows per match

Platense
1.38
Municipal Limeño
1.32

finishing

Platense+0.00on par
Municipal Limeño+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Municipal Limeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Platense or draw
63%
Platense or Municipal Limeño
72%
Draw or Municipal Limeño
65%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
15%
Municipal Limeño wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
69%
Platense 2+ goals
33%
Platense 3+ goals
12%
Municipal Limeño 1+ goals
71%
Municipal Limeño 2+ goals
35%
Municipal Limeño 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
48%
Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Municipal Limeño away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.04 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Municipal Limeño attack 1.07 + Platense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Platense scores more
35%
level
28%
Municipal Limeño scores more
37%

Municipal Limeño at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Municipal Limeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense vs Municipal Limeño

Municipal Limeño beat Platense 1-0 in Primera Division on January 21, 2026.