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Platense vs Isidro Metapán — Primera Division 2019

Platense
Platense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Isidro Metapán
Isidro Metapán
2/22/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Platense34%
×Draw28%
Isidro Metapán38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.15
Isidro Metapán
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 147 away

creates per match

Platense
1.04
Isidro Metapán
1.07

allows per match

Platense
1.38
Isidro Metapán
1.25

finishing

Platense+0.00on par
Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Isidro Metapán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Platense or draw
62%
Platense or Isidro Metapán
72%
Draw or Isidro Metapán
66%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
14%
Isidro Metapán wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
68%
Platense 2+ goals
32%
Platense 3+ goals
11%
Isidro Metapán 1+ goals
71%
Isidro Metapán 2+ goals
35%
Isidro Metapán 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
47%
Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.04 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + Platense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Platense scores more
34%
level
28%
Isidro Metapán scores more
38%

Isidro Metapán at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense vs Isidro Metapán

Platense and Isidro Metapán drew 1-1 in Primera Division on February 22, 2026.