Platense 0–2 Corinthians: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians

Yuri Alberto 70'

Kayke 54'

4/10/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Platense36%

×Draw30%

Corinthians34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchCorinthians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.01

Platense

1.04

Corinthians

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

0.69

1.33

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Platense

1.00

Corinthians

0.69

allows per match

Platense

1.33

Corinthians

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense+0.00on par

Corinthians+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Corinthians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw

66%

Platense or Corinthians

70%

Draw or Corinthians

64%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

14%

Corinthians wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

65%

Platense 2+ goals

28%

Platense 3+ goals

9%

Corinthians 1+ goals

64%

Corinthians 2+ goals

27%

Corinthians 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

51%

Corinthians (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Corinthians away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.00 + Corinthians defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Corinthians attack 0.69 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Platense scores more

36%

level

30%

Corinthians scores more

34%

Platense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Kayke

Corinthians · M

8.0

Match Events

45'

André Luiz

54'

Kayke↳ R. Garro

63'

L. Heredia← A. Lotti

69'

I. Gomez← P. Ferreira

70'

J. Gauto← F. Zapiola

70'

Yuri Alberto↳ R. Garro

75'

K. Retamar← G. Mainero

75'

E. Raggio← I. Vazquez

79'

Juan Ignacio SaboridoCard upgrade

80'

Juan Ignacio Saborido

83'

A. Carrillo← Andre

83'

Vitinho← Kayke

86'

Pedro Raul← Yuri Alberto

87'

J. Lingard← R. Garro

87'

Allan← Raniele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseCorinthians

Overview

57%Possession43%

6Total Shots6

0.20Expected Goals (xG)1.24

5Corners1

8Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots6

2On Target3

4Off Target3

0Blocked0

3Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

434Total Passes348

354Accurate Passes262

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.71Goals Prevented0.71

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1