Platense 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Platense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

M. Bogado 90+8'

V. Taborda 34'

7/19/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Platense47%

×Draw30%

Central Cordoba de Santiago23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.74

Platense

1.21

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.74

Platense creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

0.66

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Platense

1.00

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.83

allows per match

Platense

0.66

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.41

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Platense-0.33scores less

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Platense or draw

77%

Platense or Central Cordoba de Santiago

70%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

53%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

21%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

70%

Platense 2+ goals

34%

Platense 3+ goals

12%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

52%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

17%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

68%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.66 · 18 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.41 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.00 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.83 + Platense defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Platense scores more

47%

level

30%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

23%

Platense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Ledesma

Platense · G

8.5

Match Events

24'

Jesús Miguel Soraire

34'

V. Taborda↳ A. Sabella

62'

H. Tijanovich← I. Schor

63'

J. Esquivel← A. Sabella

68'

H. López← L. Besozzi

68'

J. Kaprof← J. Gómez

69'

M. Zárate← V. Taborda

79'

M. Bogado← C. Villalba

80'

S. Guerrero← R. Contreras

83'

Hernan Lopez

83'

N. Banegas← J. Bay

85'

Mauro Bogado

86'

G. Torres← F. González

90+8'

90'

90+8'

90+2'

90+4'

90+8'

M. Bogado↳ S. Guerrero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseCentral

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots16

10Corners5

10Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots16

8On Target6

3Off Target4

3Blocked6

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box9

Passing

47%Possession53%

321Total Passes381

205Accurate Passes242

64%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2