Platense 0–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Platense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

P. Ortega 76'

5/12/2019

Primera Nacional · Promotion Play-offs - Quarter-finalsEstadio Ciudad de Vicente López (Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Platense37%

×Draw29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.11

Platense

1.17

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

1.17

creates per match

1.27

0.96

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Platense

1.17

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.27

allows per match

Platense

0.96

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense+0.00on par

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Platense or draw

66%

Platense or Central Cordoba de Santiago

71%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

63%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

16%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

69%

Platense 2+ goals

33%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

67%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

30%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

52%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.17 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.27 + Platense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Platense scores more

37%

level

29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

34%

Platense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

R. De Ciancio← D. Tonetto

67'

D. Vega← F. Curuchet

68'

P. Ortega← F. Melivillo

72'

D. Jara← J. Bay

76'

80'

80'

85'

88'

Platense

Central

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Ruiz

59'▲R. De Ciancio←▼D. Tonetto

67'▲D. Vega←▼F. Curuchet

80'▲J. Bustos←▼M. Vega

Platense substitutes

CiancioVegaBustosGallegosDesábatoBocchinoPugliese

Manager: G. Coleoni

68'▲P. Ortega←▼F. Melivillo

72'▲D. Jara←▼J. Bay

85'▲R. Pérez←▼N. Luján

Central Cordoba de Santiago substitutes

OrtegaJaraPérezPiñeroCavallottiDutariGallucci

Primera Nacional: Platense 0–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Central Cordoba de Santiago beat Platense 1-0 in Primera Nacional on May 12, 2019.

Goals: P. Ortega (76').

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López (Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires).

Platense vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Nacional: Platense 0–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago