Platense 4–1 Atletico Tucuman: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Tucuman

T. Sandoval 90+4'

H. Lamberti 70'

H. Tijanovich 47'

M. Tissera 31'

L. Heredia 12'

10/30/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 19Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Platense42%

×Draw30%

Atletico Tucuman28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.88

Platense

1.15

Atletico Tucuman

0.88

Platense creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.01

creates per match

1.07

0.68

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Atletico Tucuman

1.07

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Atletico Tucuman

1.28

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Atletico Tucuman-0.45scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw

72%

Platense or Atletico Tucuman

70%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

58%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

18%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

68%

Platense 2+ goals

32%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

59%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

22%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

60%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.07 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Platense scores more

42%

level

30%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

28%

Platense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

H. Lamberti

Platense · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

L. Heredia↳ C. Menéndez

18'

Yonatan Cabral

24'

Guillermo Acosta

31'

M. Tissera↳ N. Bertolo

32'

Felipe Campos

33'

Cristian Erbes

37'

M. Orihuela← Y. Cabral

46'

Ramiro Carrera

47'

H. Tijanovich↳ A. Schott

49'

Matías Orihuela

55'

C. Albornoz← G. Acosta

56'

F. Mussis← A. Lotti

56'

C. Rius← C. Erbes

60'

Augusto Schott

60'

Franco Mussis

68'

Leonardo Heredia

68'

M. Bogado← B. Mansilla

69'

F. Russo← N. Bertolo

69'

R. Ruiz← C. Menéndez

70'

H. Lamberti

71'

C. Marcial← A. Schott

84'

T. Sandoval← H. Tijanovich

84'

P. Gerzel← M. Tissera

90+4'

T. Sandoval↳ C. Marcial

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseAtletico

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots9

2Corners0

15Fouls24

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

303Total Passes364

238Accurate Passes285

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls24

1Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 4–1 Atletico Tucuman

Platense beat Atletico Tucuman 4-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 30, 2021.

Goals: L. Heredia (12'), M. Tissera (31'), H. Tijanovich (47'), H. Lamberti (70'), T. Sandoval (90+4').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Platense vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 4–1 Atletico Tucuman