Atletico Tucuman 2–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Platense

M. Coronel 41'

R. Carrera 2'

V. Taborda 24'

10/5/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 23Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Atletico Tucuman47%

×Draw29%

Platense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.81

Atletico Tucuman

1.27

Platense

0.81

Atletico Tucuman creates 57% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.34

creates per match

0.73

0.89

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.34

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.89

Platense

1.21

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.14scores more

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

76%

Atletico Tucuman or Platense

71%

Draw or Platense

53%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

22%

Platense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

14%

Platense 1+ goals

56%

Platense 2+ goals

19%

Platense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

67%

Platense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 21 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.34 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Platense attack 0.73 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

47%

level

29%

Platense scores more

24%

Atletico Tucuman at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Carrera

Atletico Tucuman · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

R. Carrera↳ M. Coronel

15'

Franco Baldassarra

24'

V. Taborda↳ C. Lattanzio

41'

M. Coronel↳ R. Carrera

46'

S. Guerrero← I. Schor

61'

N. Delgadillo← V. Taborda

61'

G. Bergessio← C. Lattanzio

64'

F. Di Franco← R. Carrera

68'

H. Tijanovich← R. Contreras

70'

Sebastián GuerreroPenalty cancelled

74'

R. Ruiz Rodríguez← A. Lotti

75'

C. Menéndez← M. Coronel

75'

C. Villalba← I. Gómez

87'

Bruno Bianchi

87'

Gonzalo Bergessio

87'

Ayrton Costa

89'

E. Isnaldo← J. Pereyra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoPlatense

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots5

3Corners2

9Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots5

4On Target1

4Off Target3

0Blocked1

4Inside Box5

4Outside Box0

Passing

39%Possession61%

290Total Passes449

195Accurate Passes342

67%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Platense

Atletico Tucuman beat Platense 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 5, 2022.

Goals: R. Carrera (2'), V. Taborda (24'), M. Coronel (41').

Platense controlled possession (61%) and registered 5 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.

Atletico Tucuman vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Platense