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Platense vs Alianza — Primera Division 2019

Platense
Platense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza
Alianza
2/1/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Platense26%
×Draw26%
Alianza48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
0.99
Alianza
1.46

Alianza creates 47% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 154 away

creates per match

Platense
1.04
Alianza
1.53

allows per match

Platense
1.38
Alianza
0.95

finishing

Platense+0.00on par
Alianza+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Alianza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Platense or draw
52%
Platense or Alianza
74%
Draw or Alianza
74%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
9%
Alianza wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
63%
Platense 2+ goals
26%
Platense 3+ goals
8%
Alianza 1+ goals
77%
Alianza 2+ goals
43%
Alianza 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
35%
Alianza (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Alianza away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.04 + Alianza defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Alianza attack 1.53 + Platense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Platense scores more
26%
level
26%
Alianza scores more
48%

Alianza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense vs Alianza

Alianza beat Platense 2-0 in Primera Division on February 1, 2026.