Platense 0–2 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Aldosivi

R. Contreras 87' (pen)

J. Schunke 84'

4/26/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 11Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Platense49%

×Draw29%

Aldosivi22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.77

Platense

1.28

Aldosivi

0.77

Platense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

1.01

creates per match

0.86

0.68

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Aldosivi

0.86

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Aldosivi

1.55

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Aldosivi-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw

78%

Platense or Aldosivi

71%

Draw or Aldosivi

51%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

22%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

72%

Platense 2+ goals

37%

Platense 3+ goals

14%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

54%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

18%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

68%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.55 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Aldosivi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.28

Aldosivi attack 0.86 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Platense scores more

49%

level

29%

Aldosivi scores more

22%

Platense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Schunke

Aldosivi · D

8.2

Match Events

37'

Emanuel Iñíguez

42'

Mauro Bogado

46'

B. Guzmán← F. Grahl

46'

J. Indacoechea← E. Iñíguez

58'

Emanuel Insua

63'

R. Contreras← F. Andrada

65'

T. Palacios← A. Messidoro

65'

P. Gerzel← N. Bertolo

68'

Joaquín Indacoechea

69'

Mauro Bogado

69'

Mauro Bogado

77'

J. Iritier← M. Braida

81'

N. Zeineddin← J. Pereyra

84'

J. Schunke↳ J. Iritier

85'

M. Tissera← F. Baldassarra

85'

N. Yeri← G. Gil

87'

R. ContrerasPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseAldosivi

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots9

3Corners3

20Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots9

2On Target5

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

3Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

357Total Passes611

252Accurate Passes510

71%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2