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Platense vs Agropecuario — Primera Nacional 2026

Platense
Platense
CANC
00:00
Agropecuario
Agropecuario
4/4/2020Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group A - 24Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Platense44%
×Draw29%
Agropecuario27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.23
Agropecuario
0.90

Platense creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 125 away

creates per match

Platense
1.17
Agropecuario
0.84

allows per match

Platense
0.96
Agropecuario
1.28

finishing

Platense+0.00on par
Agropecuario+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Agropecuario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw
73%
Platense or Agropecuario
71%
Draw or Agropecuario
56%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
19%
Agropecuario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
71%
Platense 2+ goals
35%
Platense 3+ goals
13%
Agropecuario 1+ goals
59%
Agropecuario 2+ goals
23%
Agropecuario 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
62%
Agropecuario (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Agropecuario away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.28 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.17 + Agropecuario defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Agropecuario attack 0.84 + Platense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Platense scores more
44%
level
29%
Agropecuario scores more
27%

Platense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Platense face Agropecuario (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional returns with Platense hosting Agropecuario. Match starts April 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Platense host Agropecuario at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.