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Platense FC vs Real de Minas — Liga Nacional 2018

Platense FC
Platense FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Real de Minas
Real de Minas
10/29/2020Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 8Estadio Excelsior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Platense FC48%
×Draw24%
Real de Minas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense FC
1.69
Real de Minas
1.25

Platense FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

creates per match

Platense FC
1.41
Real de Minas
1.14

allows per match

Platense FC
1.37
Real de Minas
1.96

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par
Real de Minas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

Real de Minas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw
72%
Platense FC or Real de Minas
76%
Draw or Real de Minas
52%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+
25%
Real de Minas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals
82%
Platense FC 2+ goals
50%
Platense FC 3+ goals
24%
Real de Minas 1+ goals
71%
Real de Minas 2+ goals
36%
Real de Minas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)
63%
Real de Minas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

Real de Minas away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.41 + Real de Minas defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Real de Minas attack 1.14 + Platense FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Platense FC scores more
48%
level
24%
Real de Minas scores more
28%

Platense FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platense FC vs Real de Minas

Platense FC beat Real de Minas 3-2 in Liga Nacional on October 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Excelsior in Puerto Cortés.