Platense FC 1–1 Juticalpa: Result & Stats

Platense FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Juticalpa

2/17/2019

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 7Estadio Excelsior (Puerto Cortés)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Platense FC52%

×Draw24%

Juticalpa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Platense FCExpected goals in this matchJuticalpa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.11

Platense FC

1.74

Juticalpa

1.11

Platense FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

1.41

creates per match

0.86

1.37

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Platense FC

1.41

Juticalpa

0.86

allows per match

Platense FC

1.37

Juticalpa

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par

Juticalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

Juticalpa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw

76%

Platense FC or Juticalpa

76%

Draw or Juticalpa

48%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+

29%

Juticalpa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals

82%

Platense FC 2+ goals

52%

Platense FC 3+ goals

25%

Juticalpa 1+ goals

67%

Juticalpa 2+ goals

30%

Juticalpa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)

68%

Juticalpa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

Juticalpa away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.41 + Juticalpa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.74

Juticalpa attack 0.86 + Platense FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Platense FC scores more

52%

level

24%

Juticalpa scores more

24%

Platense FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff