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Juticalpa vs Platense FC — Liga Nacional 2018

Juticalpa
Juticalpa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Platense FC
Platense FC
7/30/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 1Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Juticalpa38%
×Draw25%
Platense FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juticalpa
1.41
Platense FC
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 91 away

creates per match

Juticalpa
1.02
Platense FC
1.12

allows per match

Juticalpa
1.65
Platense FC
1.79

finishing

Juticalpa+0.00on par
Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juticalpa ↓

Platense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Juticalpa or draw
63%
Juticalpa or Platense FC
75%
Draw or Platense FC
62%

Winning margin

Juticalpa wins by 2+
18%
Platense FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Juticalpa 1+ goals
76%
Juticalpa 2+ goals
41%
Juticalpa 3+ goals
17%
Platense FC 1+ goals
75%
Platense FC 2+ goals
40%
Platense FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Juticalpa (draw refunded)
51%
Platense FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juticalpa at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juticalpa attack 1.02 + Platense FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.41

Platense FC attack 1.12 + Juticalpa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juticalpa scores more
38%
level
25%
Platense FC scores more
37%

Juticalpa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juticalpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juticalpa vs Platense FC

Juticalpa beat Platense FC 1-0 in Liga Nacional on July 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas in Juticalpa.