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Platense FC vs CD Honduras — Liga Nacional 2018

Platense FC
Platense FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Honduras
CD Honduras
3/6/2022Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 9Estadio Excelsior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Platense FC52%
×Draw23%
CD Honduras25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense FC
1.81
CD Honduras
1.19

Platense FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 88 away

creates per match

Platense FC
1.41
CD Honduras
1.01

allows per match

Platense FC
1.37
CD Honduras
2.22

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par
CD Honduras+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

CD Honduras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw
75%
Platense FC or CD Honduras
77%
Draw or CD Honduras
48%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+
29%
CD Honduras wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals
84%
Platense FC 2+ goals
54%
Platense FC 3+ goals
27%
CD Honduras 1+ goals
70%
CD Honduras 2+ goals
33%
CD Honduras 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)
67%
CD Honduras (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

CD Honduras away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.22 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.41 + CD Honduras defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.81

CD Honduras attack 1.01 + Platense FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Platense FC scores more
52%
level
23%
CD Honduras scores more
25%

Platense FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Platense FC 0–0 CD Honduras

Platense FC and CD Honduras drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Excelsior in Puerto Cortés.