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Platense FC vs Atlético Choloma — Liga Nacional 2018

Platense FC
Platense FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Choloma
Atlético Choloma
C. Lopez Quinteros 73'
J. Quejada 89'
2/8/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 4Estadio Excelsior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Platense FC55%
×Draw23%
Atlético Choloma22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense FC
1.82
Atlético Choloma
1.07

Platense FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 34 away

creates per match

Platense FC
1.46
Atlético Choloma
0.82

allows per match

Platense FC
1.32
Atlético Choloma
2.18

finishing

Platense FC+0.00on par
Atlético Choloma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense FC ↓

Atlético Choloma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Platense FC or draw
78%
Platense FC or Atlético Choloma
77%
Draw or Atlético Choloma
45%

Winning margin

Platense FC wins by 2+
31%
Atlético Choloma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Platense FC 1+ goals
84%
Platense FC 2+ goals
54%
Platense FC 3+ goals
27%
Atlético Choloma 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Choloma 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Choloma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Platense FC (draw refunded)
71%
Atlético Choloma (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

Atlético Choloma away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense FC attack 1.46 + Atlético Choloma defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.82

Atlético Choloma attack 0.82 + Platense FC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Platense FC scores more
55%
level
23%
Atlético Choloma scores more
22%

Platense FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Platense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
B. Santos
32'
Y. Chavez
65'
C. Fernandez
73'
C. Lopez Quinteros
77'
B. Barrios
84'
J. Quejada
89'
J. Quejada
90+7'
D. Carter
Platense
Atlético
Caceres Raul
Manager: Caceres Raul
Fernando Molina
Manager: Fernando Molina

Match Recap: Platense FC vs Atlético Choloma

Platense FC and Atlético Choloma drew 1-1 in Liga Nacional on February 8, 2026.

Goals: C. Lopez Quinteros (73'), J. Quejada (89').

The match was played at Estadio Excelsior in Puerto Cortes.