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Plateau United vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
10/27/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 9Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Plateau United66%
×Draw24%
Sunshine Stars10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
1.60
Sunshine Stars
0.46

Plateau United creates 248% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 110 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
90%
Plateau United or Sunshine Stars
76%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
34%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
37%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
80%
Plateau United 2+ goals
47%
Plateau United 3+ goals
22%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
37%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
8%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
86%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Plateau United scores more
66%
level
24%
Sunshine Stars scores more
10%

Plateau United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Plateau United 3–0 Sunshine Stars

Plateau United beat Sunshine Stars 3-0 in NPFL on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Jos International Stadium in Jos.