Plateau United 0–1 Simba: Result & Stats

Plateau United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Simba

C. Chama 53'

11/29/2020

CAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundJos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plateau United38%

×Draw34%

Simba28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plateau UnitedExpected goals in this matchSimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.75

Plateau United

0.94

Simba

0.75

Plateau United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

0.67

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Plateau United

1.00

Simba

0.83

allows per match

Plateau United

0.67

Simba

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par

Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Simba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw

72%

Plateau United or Simba

66%

Draw or Simba

62%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+

14%

Simba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals

61%

Plateau United 2+ goals

24%

Plateau United 3+ goals

7%

Simba 1+ goals

53%

Simba 2+ goals

17%

Simba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)

58%

Simba (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Simba away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.00 + Simba defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Simba attack 0.83 + Plateau United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Plateau United scores more

38%

level

34%

Simba scores more

28%

Plateau United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

B. Ovoke← J. Saeed

46'

M. Yassin← J. Onyango

53'

C. Chama

63'

S. Anthony← U. Onwuansanya

78'

B. Morrison← H. Dilunga

90'

I. Ame← C. Chama

Plateau

Simba

28

6

18

12

15

16

▼

Onyango

20

Mkude

17

⚽

▼

Chama

11

Miquisson

22

Bocco

24

▼

22

2

19

20

18

13

17

25

▼

Onwuansan

9

Adetunji

14

Abba

30

▼

Saeed

46'▲B. Ovoke←▼J. Saeed

63'▲S. Anthony←▼U. Onwuansanya

Plateau United substitutes

7Ovoke8Anthony23Bashir1Henlong3Itodo15Buhari21Ajiboye

46'▲M. Yassin←▼J. Onyango

78'▲B. Morrison←▼H. Dilunga

90'▲I. Ame←▼C. Chama

Simba substitutes

19Yassin3Morrison5Ame2Michael13Juma14Kagere30Kakolanya