Plateau United 2–0 MFM: Result & Stats | NPFL

Plateau United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

MFM

4/17/2022

NPFL · Round 23Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Plateau United65%

×Draw24%

MFM11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plateau UnitedExpected goals in this matchMFM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.47

Plateau United

1.58

MFM

0.47

Plateau United creates 236% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 61 away

1.76

creates per match

0.49

0.45

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Plateau United

1.76

MFM

0.49

allows per match

Plateau United

0.45

MFM

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par

MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

MFM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw

89%

Plateau United or MFM

76%

Draw or MFM

35%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+

36%

MFM wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals

79%

Plateau United 2+ goals

47%

Plateau United 3+ goals

21%

MFM 1+ goals

37%

MFM 2+ goals

8%

MFM 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)

86%

MFM (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

MFM attack 0.49 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Plateau United scores more

65%

level

24%

MFM scores more

11%

Plateau United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff