Plateau United 1–0 Katsina United: Result & Stats

Plateau United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Katsina United

9/8/2024

NPFL · Round 1Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Plateau United69%

×Draw23%

Katsina United8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plateau UnitedExpected goals in this matchKatsina United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.37

Plateau United

1.64

Katsina United

0.37

Plateau United creates 343% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 118 away

1.76

creates per match

0.29

0.45

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Plateau United

1.76

Katsina United

0.29

allows per match

Plateau United

0.45

Katsina United

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par

Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Katsina United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw

92%

Plateau United or Katsina United

77%

Draw or Katsina United

31%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+

40%

Katsina United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals

81%

Plateau United 2+ goals

49%

Plateau United 3+ goals

23%

Katsina United 1+ goals

31%

Katsina United 2+ goals

5%

Katsina United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)

90%

Katsina United (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Katsina United attack 0.29 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Plateau United scores more

69%

level

23%

Katsina United scores more

8%

Plateau United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff