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Plateau United vs Jigawa Golden Stars — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
2 – 1
Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
3/1/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 22Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Plateau United70%
×Draw21%
Jigawa Golden Stars9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
1.86
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.50

Plateau United creates 272% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 31 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.55

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Jigawa Golden Stars
1.97

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
91%
Plateau United or Jigawa Golden Stars
79%
Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars
30%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
43%
Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
84%
Plateau United 2+ goals
55%
Plateau United 3+ goals
28%
Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
39%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
9%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
88%
Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.86

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Plateau United scores more
70%
level
21%
Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
9%

Plateau United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Plateau United 2–1 Jigawa Golden Stars

Plateau United beat Jigawa Golden Stars 2-1 in NPFL on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Jos International Stadium in Jos.