Plateau United 1–0 Heartland: Result & Stats | NPFL

Plateau United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Heartland

10/8/2023

NPFL · Round 2Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Plateau United66%

×Draw24%

Heartland11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plateau UnitedExpected goals in this matchHeartland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.49

Plateau United

1.64

Heartland

0.49

Plateau United creates 235% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 100 away

1.76

creates per match

0.53

0.45

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Plateau United

1.76

Heartland

0.53

allows per match

Plateau United

0.45

Heartland

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par

Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Heartland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw

89%

Plateau United or Heartland

76%

Draw or Heartland

34%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+

37%

Heartland wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals

81%

Plateau United 2+ goals

49%

Plateau United 3+ goals

23%

Heartland 1+ goals

39%

Heartland 2+ goals

9%

Heartland 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)

86%

Heartland (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Heartland attack 0.53 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Plateau United scores more

66%

level

24%

Heartland scores more

11%

Plateau United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff